Tankers play waiting game

GLOBAL oil demand will linger for 2009 at 2.5M barrels a day less than last year, but 2010 will bring a demand rebound of 1.4M bpd.

Though OECD oil demand has fallen more than expected, it is not all bad news for a tanker trade thirsty for more cargoes. In its July Oil Market Report, released today, the International Energy Association said most of the demand in the next two years will come from non-OECD countries.

Non-OPEC supply for this year has also been revised up by 330,000bpd to 190,000bpd, mainly because of greater flow than expected from Russia.

Oil supplies will increase to 51.2M bpd by 2010, concentrated around Azerbaijan, Brazil, global biofuels, the Gulf of Mexico and the vast potential supplies contained in Canadian oilsands.

Until then, however, tanker markets will have to sit out growing concerns over the pace and direction of economic recovery. Too much tonnage on the market and persistently high oil stocks have kept a lid on freight rates after the initial four-month rally earlier this year.

The IEA has as a result graded down its global crude runs by 0.5M bpd to 73M bpd for the third quarter of 2009, following a contraction in refining margins.

European refining activity, in particular, has taken a blow, and fewer clean/product trade movements are expected.

 

GLOBAL oil demand will linger for 2009 at 2.5M barrels a day less than last year, but 2010 will bring a demand rebound of 1.4M bpd.

 

 

Source： Fairplay