Fuel alternatives will depend on terminals

Japan has appealed for calm, but acknowledges there is “cause for concern”. The government is at the moment fighting not one, but three related disasters, the last being the nuclear power plant issue.


However, pulling back from one moment from the horror of the prospect of more than 10,000 dead and half a million dislocated people, there is the medium and long term future of the power industry to consider, as well as an immediate and pressing need for fuel.


For the short term there will be a requirement for any kind of available fuel to come in as quickly as possible, so port facilities and LNG terminals in particular will no doubt find themselves soon put to thorough use.


In the longer term, parallels might be found between current events and Japan’s 2007 earthquake which caused a large nuclear power plant to completely shut down for 21 months said Jeffrey Landsberg of Commodore Research & Consultancy.


Mr Landsberg told Port Strategy that, “the 2007 shutdown contributed to a rise in Japanese thermal coal imports, increasing them by approximately 15% over the year before”. However, the Fukushima Daiichi and Fukushima Daini nuclear power plants are together responsible for slightly more power generation than the plant shut down in 2007, and there is no chance now of reopening at least the Daiichi reactors and an uncertain future for the Daini plant.


Energy security has for some time been a feature of Japanese politics, and the fact that it imports something like 90% of its oil from the Middle East has lead to a concentration of nuclear reactors being put in place in Japan.


Mark Yong of BMT Asia explained to Port Strategy that it might well mean the emergence of even more LNG facilities as the anti-nuclear power lobby gains strength on the back of the recent events. “Out of all the LNG facilities in Asia, Japan has the largest number, so it already has an established LNG base. Further, gas is in abundance, with Exxon Mobile and Shell both beginning to produce more gas than oil,” he explains, and this may well lead to the immediate gap being partially filled by gas shipments, with possibly more reliance on the sector in the future.


Looking even further into the future, long term reconstruction work will also cause a consequent rise in iron ore and coking coal imports, also leading to increased port activity.
(Source:http://www.portstrategy.com)