Port Tracker Forecasts Strong Europe Container Growth

 Container volumes across Europe ended the year on a high note with estimates for November 2010 reaching just over 3 million 20-foot equivalent units of containers and for 2011 growth in the high single digits, according to the Global Port Tracker.


Volume increased nearly 10 percent over the same month the previous year, said Hackett Associates and the Bremen Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics in their North Europe Trade Outlook, released Monday.


These figures, for all deep-sea European trade excluding transshipments and empties, include an estimated 1.73 million imported TEUs and 1.29 million exported TEUs, increases of 12.6 percent and 6.2 percent respectively compared to November 2009.


Import and export volumes are expected to grow through the six months of the short-term forecast with double-digit growth in exports for January and in imports for February. The forecast for 2010 of 21.12 million imported TEUs remains unchanged from previous Port Tracker forecasts and represents a 13.8 percent increase over 2009.


Total exports are forecast to increase by 9 percent to 15.44 million TEUs.


Ben Hackett, principal of Hackett Associates, forecast high single-digit growth for imports and exports in 2011 but cautioned, "We should not expect to see a repeat of last year's growth for imports as these were the result of the post-recessionary period whereas this year will be impacted by the austerity measures of the European governments."


Hackett said supply of vessel capacity will continue to outstrip demand and put downward pressure on freight rates, "particularly if carriers revert to market share strategies."


Across the six North European ports monitored by the Global Port Tracker, a total of 15.23 million incoming TEUs and 15.72 outgoing TEUs are forecast for 2010, which would represent gains on 2009 of 12.9 percent and 11.2 percent respectively. The total volume forecast for 2010 is virtually unchanged at 37.38 million TEUs for a 12.5 percent increase over 2009's 33.22 million TEUs
(Source:http://www.joc.com)