Port Tracker: No double dip, US box volume to rise 9pc in November

IMPORT cargo volume through major US retail container ports continued to slip as the peak season comes to an end, yet it was still expected to rise nine per cent in November over the same month last year, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

"We continue not to project a double-dip recession despite the economic uncertainty and the weakness of the economy. Underlying fundamentals remain healthy," said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said.

"Consumer confidence has not changed much, but consumer expenditures have picked up. Fear of unemployment may be waning," he said.

Said federation vice president Jonathan Gold: "Retailers know shoppers still have the economy in mind, so they are being very mindful with inventory levels this year. Cargo numbers show retailers are expecting a much better holiday season than they have seen over the past two years, but the industry is still cautious."

US ports handled 1.34 million TEU in September, the latest month for which actual numbers are available. That was down six per cent from August but up 17 per cent from September 2009. It was the 10th month in a row to show a year-on-year improvement after December 2009 broke a 28-month streak of declines.

October was estimated at 1.29 million TEU, a nine per cent increase over last year. October is historically the busiest month of the year as retailers stock up for the holiday season, but the peak shifted to August this year as retailers brought merchandise into the country early to avoid a repeat of delays on the part of ocean carriers seen earlier this year.

Year on year, December is forecast at 1.1 million TEU, up one per cent; January at 1.08 million TEU, up seven per cent. But February, traditionally the slowest month of the year, is forecast at 1.06 million TEU, down five per cent from last year, and March is forecast at 1.04 million TEU, down 10 per cent.

Numbers beyond March have not yet been calculated, but a solid recovery is expected in the second and third quarters of 2011 after the usual winter slowdown, said the report.

The first half of 2010 totalled 6.9 million TEU, up 17 per cent from the same period last year. The full year is forecast at 14.6 million TEU, which would be up 15 per cent from the 12.7 million TEU of 2009, which was the lowest since the 12.5 million TEU reported in 2003. The 2010 number remains below the 15.2 million TEU seen in 2008 and the peak of 16.5 million TEU of 2007.

Global Port Tracker covers Long Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah and Houston.
(Source:www.schednet.com)