Port tracker expects rise in US containers early next year

IMPORT container volume at major US ports could see the first year-on-year increase in 27 months in early 2010, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight.

"This could be the turnaround we've been waiting to see," said federation vice president Jonathan Gold. "There's not enough data yet to establish a clear trend, but we're hopeful."

US ports surveyed handled 1.14 million TEU in September, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was down three per cent from August and 16 per cent from September 2008.

October, usually the best month of the year, was estimated at 1.17 million TEU, down 15 per cent from last year. November is forecast at 1.09 million TEU, down 11 per cent from last year, December at 1.06 million TEU, flat compared with last year, and January 2010 is forecast at 1.03 million TEU, down three per cent.

The January figure would mark the 31st month of year-on-year declines, but the trend is forecast to be broken in February, when cargo is expected to total 973,872 TEU. The figure is below the million mark because February is the slowest month of the year, but would be a 16 per cent increase over February 2009. March 2010 is forecast at 1.02 million, a five per cent increase over March 2009.

The report now expects 2009 to end with a total volume of 12.7 million TEU, a drop of 16.8 per cent from last year's 15.2 million TEU and the lowest since the 12.47 million TEU imported in 2003.

"The second half of 2009 has continued to see declines from 2008 levels, but not as large as we saw during the first half of this year," said IHS Global Insight economist Paul Bingham. "These 'less bad' numbers are evidence that the industry is seeing early signs of recovery."

All US ports covered by Port Tracker - Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the west coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the east coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast- are rated "low" for congestion, the same as last month.

Source: www.schednet.com