USDA forecasts record $101 billion in ag exports for 2008

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced that U.S. agricultural exports are forecast to reach a record $101 billion for fiscal year 2008, up $10 billion from November's forecast and an unprecedented $19 billion above 2007.



Based on current market conditions, bulk grains, oilseeds and cotton exports should rise $13.2 billion and account for 70 percent of the overall increase in export value for 2008, said U.S. Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer at the USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum.



Higher prices account for most of this increase, but export volumes are also generally higher, he added. Coarse grains are forecast to rise 10.9 million tons to 70 million tons and wheat should rise 2.3 million tons.



We also see further increases in high-value product exports such as fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, tree nuts, pork, beef, poultry meat, and many grocery products, Schafer said. Exports of animal and horticultural products are forecast to rise a combined $3.5 billion in 2008 to record levels. With U.S. agricultural imports forecast at $76.5 billion, we expect a $24.5 billion trade surplus.



The agriculture secretary said the increase in middle class spending in other countries, the weaker U.S. dollar and tighter overseas stocks have raised the demand for U.S. agricultural commodities, such as wheat and corn.



Trade agreements have a significant impact on our ability to compete and sell our agricultural commodities in world markets, Schafer said. If Congress ratifies the pending free trade agreements with Colombia, Panama and Korea, the increased access will boost our producers' exports even higher.



USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service, Economic Research Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board release agricultural trade forecasts quarterly. The summary and full report of the current outlook are available online at either.

Source: American Shipper