Despite growth, global air cargo remains uncertain

SEATTLE's Air Cargo Management Group (ACMG) predicts global air freight will increase 4.5 to 5.5 per cent annually, while admitting "great uncertainty" on how the market will perform given its "extreme volatility".


"Assuming no major economic shock, ACMG predicts that we are entering a more 'normal' period," it said in its latest "International Air Freight and Express Industry Performance Analysis," reports Air Cargo World.


"History would indicate roughly six per cent annual growth in FTK [freight tonne kilometres] demand [in 2011], but ACMG believes the maturity of the air freight market will produce somewhat lower growth in the range of 4.5 to 5.5 per cent per year going forward," said managing director Robert Dahl.


"Few anticipated the speed of the recovery, with some market participants reporting by mid-2010 that air freight traffic had returned to pre-recession levels ... We enter 2011 thankful for the recovery, but with a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen next," he said.


By way of comparison, the report noted that Boeing's "World Air Cargo Forecast" published last autumn anticipates international FTKs will increase by an average of 5.9 per cent annually until 2029.


ACMG estimates that the international air cargo and express industry, including airlines, freight forwarders and express operators, raised 2010 revenue by "at least 20 per cent based on improvements in both traffic and yield" compared to the previous year. The group estimates the industry earned around US$66.3 billion in revenue in 2009, the report said.


According to ACMG data, international express volumes in 2010 rose by 12.5 per cent over mid-2009 levels to 2.25 million shipments daily, with the global freighter fleet expanding by four per cent last year compared to 2009 to 1,623 units, the report added.
(Source:http://www.schednet.com)