Air cargo growth to continue, but slow in 2011: IATA

THE International Air Transport Association (IATA) is predicting that the rebound in air cargo traffic that started in late 2009 will continue during 2011, albeit at a slower pace than that experienced in 2010.

Speaking at IATA's Cargo Media Day in Geneva, chief economist Brian Pearce said the inventory restocking that resulted in year on year air freight growth of more than 20 per cent in late 2009 and through most of 2010 has played out, reports Air Transport World.

On the other hand, he expects that "booming" economies in Asia and other emerging regions such as Latin America will continue to spur growth next year, although at a much slower pace. "There's still scope for growth, but it's going to start being tougher in 2011," he was quoted as saying.

According to IATA, international air freight volumes grew by 24 per cent and revenue generated by air cargo surged by 30 in the first 10 months of 2010 compared to the same period last year.

However, "the rebound, though quite strong on an overall basis, has been uneven," the report said. For example, in the third quarter of 2010 air cargo traffic remained below the levels seen in the third quarter of 2007 across the North Atlantic. Over in South East Asia the situation was the reverse with third quarter air freight traffic up 40 per cent compared to the same period in 2007.

"If we step outside of Europe, particularly in Asia and Latin America, there is actually really strong growth," said Mr Pearce. "Europe is going to be very challenged, but in the so-called emerging markets growth is very strong and I think that bodes well for the cargo business."

Looking forwards, he warned that "imbalanced trade" will be a "big challenge" for the air freight industry. "It's always been a problem in the cargo business that cargo goes only one way (in contrast to passenger round-trips). There have been very high loads coming out of Asia and very low loads coming in," he said.

"What we'll probably see going forwards is that much of the expansion of trade lanes will be within Asia, which is very good for carriers that serve that region." For airlines without significant operations in Asia, cargo alliances, partnerships and joint ventures will be increasingly viewed as a means "to get exposure to emerging markets," Mr Pearce was quoted as saying.
(Source:www.schednet.com)