A recent report from Drewry Shipping Consultants has analyzed the current newbuilding orderbook to assess the level of vulnerability and overcapacity. Drewry has established three stages of newbuilding demand between now and 2023. The results show that while productivity did not rise from 36m dwt between 2007 and 2008, the orderbook remains double the 97m compensated gross tonnage that will be required up to 2013.
During the subsequent five years, from 2014 to 2018, Drewry estimates that the industry will require 120m cgt new tonnage, and 139 cgt will be needed in the five years after that. According to Drewy md Nigel Gardiner, future newbuilding requirements will be high, as over 60m dwt of older vessels head for scrapping over the next five years.
In the short term, Gardiner suggested that the level of cancellations would remain high, especially in the dry bulk market. According to Drewry statistics, 6,864 dry bulk vessels were on order at the beginning of this year, giving a combined deadweight of 422m tonnes. If dry bulk trades were to grow at the rates seen in the period 2000-2008, it would generate incremental new ship demand for approximately 100m dwt over a five-year period. However, the latest projections suggest that over the next five years, trade growth is likely to generate new demand closer to 50m dwt.
"To this figure you must, of course, add demolitions over the period, but even then the combined total will make only a small dent on the 300m dwt that is currently scheduled to be delivered between now and the end of 2013. As such, do not expect trade growth to save the dry bulk market," said the Drewry report. "We fully expect the cancellations to continue as the year.
(Source: Motorship)
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